11.2 It’s Harder Than It Looks
Think back to your first ski trip, that is, if you didn’t grow up on skis. Friends had perhaps hyped their exploits on the slopes, igniting your sense of missing out—and your desire to belong. No doubt, if you had watched skiing on TV, you had sensed skiing’s adrenaline rush and were even more psyched to strap on skis and whoosh down a mountain. Experienced skiers make it look so easy. You may have even thought, “I’m a good athlete, I can do this.”
Now, what was your reality? When you stepped off the lift for your first run, did you—like most first-timers—spend more time picking yourself up off the slopes than whooshing down them? Perhaps you’ve tried to forget this part of the story. Now, the good news, science is starting to grasp why there’s a gap between the aspirations you had and the outcomes you experienced.
The explanation starts with the concept of a growth mindset—the mentality that gives us confidence we can do new things. When our growth mindset is hijacked by lack of perspective, we fail to appreciate the experts’ depth of skill. We underestimate the effort, and often painful learning, they invested to make “it” look easy. Confirmation bias further distorts our perspective, telling us, “I’ve done hard things before. I’ve got this.”
Here's the catch. We don’t know what we don’t know. And our brain remembers past positive outcomes more vividly than the difficult journey required to achieve them. Reality ultimately restores perspective and resets expectations. Now, a question: Does this pattern sound familiar? It should. In the SC technology world, we describe this path as the Hype Cycle.
| Stage | Definition | RFID Example |
|---|---|---|
| Innovation Trigger | A technology “breakthrough” triggers market interest. Media coverage creates buzz. FOMO drives adoption. | As the 2000s began, pundits hyped RFID as the tech for “total visibility.” Media amplified the noise, touting it as the “better barcode.” Quick, and relatively easy, rollout was expected. |
| Peak of Inflated Expectations | Early publicity amps the hype, which is fed by a few success stories. Failures, which are more common, tend to be ignored. | In June 2003, Walmart mandated its Top 100 suppliers launch RFID by 2005. By 2006, all suppliers would be included. The DoD followed suit in October with the same timeline. Pundits proclaimed the “RFID Revolution.” |
| Trough of Disillusionment | As implementations don’t deliver the desired ROI, interest wanes. | By 2007, Walmart rescinded its mandate, citing high costs and tech readiness. The DoD delayed its initiative. Some called RFID a “solution in search of a problem,” noting: “RFID’s promise unfulfilled.” |
| Slope of Enlightenment | Someone figures out the path to commercial success, defining a proven path and renewing interest in the technology. | In 2014, a WSJ headline read, “Zara Builds Its Business Around RFID.” The article claimed that Zara had “learned from others’ mistakes.” By 2015, the cost per tag was down 90% (from 50-75 cents to 3-8 cents). Other retailers soon followed. |
| Plateau of Productivity | Adoption goes mainstream. Companies that hold back risk being left behind. | By 2020, Walmart had launched a new mandate for all apparel suppliers (toys and home goods followed in 2022, other categories in 2025). With costs per tag down to 2-3 cents, pundits reveled, “RFID: A gamechanger for retail.” |
What’s your takeaway? If you jump on new tech out of the starting gate, you will likely struggle. Check out Figure 2, which shows popular technologies of the past 40 years that tracked to the Hype Cycle. Early adopters chased elusive benefits, burning resources—both time and money. They seldom emerged first on the slope of enlightenment. Chasing the Hype Cycle is as expensive as it is ineffective. Our five yard-sale stories illustrate the costs of “sloppy” technology adoption. Vonn’s deliberate, disciplined approach models how you can avoid riding the peak of inflated expectations only to get stuck in the trough of disillusionment.